Lake Okeechobee Recovery Ops Forecast

Purpose
Framework
- Stage-Volume-Area
Scenarios
Results
- Scenario 1
- Scenario 2
- Scenario 3
- Scenario 4
- Scenario 5
- Base
- All Scenarios
Data Sources

Updated: 2025-06-26 08:31:00 EDT

Purpose

This webpage/report is intended to share potential scenario forecasts associated with Lake Okeechobee Recovery Operations in the late-2024 to mid-2025 time period.

Framework

This forecasts are based on a hydrological modeling framework for lake water level management using a simple water balance equation (below).

\[\frac{\Delta V}{\Delta t} = I_t -Q_t + A_t\times (P_t - E_t) \]

Where

\(V_t\) (ac-ft) and \(A_t\) (acres) are volume/storage and area based on the stage-volume-area relationships specific to Lake Okeechobee based on recent bathymetry
\(P_t\) (\(ft \; d^{-1}\)) and \(E_t\) (\(ft \; d^{-1}\)) are precipitation and evapotranspiration
- Based on historic data (last 10 water years) spatially averaged from monitoring locations (see Data Sources, below).
\(I_t\) (\(ac\mbox{-}ft \; d^{-1}\)) is inflow discharges to the lake based on historic discharges
\(Q_t\) (\(ac\mbox{-}ft \; d^{-1}\)) is outflow discharges from the lake based on a combination of historic discharges and pulse releases depending on the scenario.

Stage-Volume-Area

Using the most recent 15 meter spatial resolution bathymetric data of Lake Okeechobee (2009) we can estimate/derive the Stage-Volume-Area relationship using to calculate/estimate the lake area and storage volume of the lake at a given stage elevation.

Stage-Volume-Area relationships for Lake Okeechobee

Scenarios

To evaluate the change in lake stage several scenarios were considered. Each scenario is intended to understand how the lake stage could change given changes to lake inflows and outflows. When using historic data (i.e. ET, inflow, and outflow discharges to EAA) period of record median values were used.

Lake Okeechobee Stage Forecast Scenarios
Scenario	CRE A	SLE A	EAA A	LWL	Rainfall	Source
1	250	P50	Max Practicable (historic median)	Up to 300	100% normal rainfall	USACE Long Range Projections
2					110% normal rainfall
3					120% normal rainfall
4	0	0	300	Up to 120	normal rainfall	Current Plan
5	0	0	150	Up to 120	normal rainfall	Internal
A Based on weekly average pulse releases

Upper and lower bounds of scenario forecasts were calculated using historically observed data based on management objectives during wetter and drier conditions, respectively. Using daily observed discharge, rainfall and ET values between May 2015 to current, the upper (wetter) bounds used the 10th percentile discharge volume to the EAA (plus amount dictated by each respective scenario), 90th percentile for lake inflows, 10th percentile for ET and 90th percentile for rainfall to estimate the change in storage. Conversely for drier conditions (lower bounds) the 90th percentile discharge volume to the EAA, 10th percentile for lake inflows, 90th percentile for ET and 10th percentile for rainfall to estimate the change in storage.

Results

At the start of the lake recovery period (Dec 07), lake Okeechobee stage was at 15.58 Ft NGVD29. Yesterday (Jun, 25 2025), lake Okeechobee stage was at 10.97 Ft NGVD29. As of yesterday, the 14-day moving average for inflows north and outflows east, west and south were 283, 1172, 42 and 794cfs.

Daily and 14-day moving average discharge volumes for inflows north and outflows east, west and south

Scenario discharge volumes for inflow, CRE, SLE and EAA relative to day-of-year median discharge volume.

Scenario 1

Lake Okeechobee Stage forecast under scenario # 1 (wetter (upper line) and drier (lower line) conditions).

Scenario 2

Lake Okeechobee Stage forecast under scenario # 2 (wetter (upper line) and drier (lower line) conditions).

Scenario 3

Lake Okeechobee Stage forecast under scenario # 3 (wetter (upper line) and drier (lower line) conditions).

Scenario 4

Lake Okeechobee Stage forecast under scenario # 4 (wetter (upper line) and drier (lower line) conditions).

Scenario 5

Lake Okeechobee Stage forecast under scenario # 5 (wetter (upper line) and drier (lower line) conditions).

Base

Base lake Okeechobee Stage forecast using historical data (wetter (upper line) and drier (lower line) conditions).

All Scenarios

Lake Okeechobee Stage forecast under all scenarios.

Data Sources

All data were retrieved from SFWMD DBhydro between 01 May 2015 and 26 Jun 2025 from the following DBKeys.

DBKEY	STATION	GROUP	SITE	DATA.TYPE	FREQ	STAT	RECORDER	AGENCY	BASIN
06832	L OKEE	L OKEE	L OKEE	STG29	DA	MEAN	COMP	COE	L OKEE
00268	L OKEE	L OKEE	L OKEE	STG29	DA	MEAN	????	USGS	L OKEE
WZ688	LAKEOKEE	LAKEOKEE	L OKEE	ETPI	DA	SUM	DRV	WMD	L OKEE
UT743	L006	L006	L006	ETPI	DA	SUM	CR10	WMD	L OKEE
UT748	LZ40	LZ40	LZ40	ETPI	DA	SUM	CR10	WMD	L OKEE
TW080	BELLE GL	BELLE GL	BELLW	ETPI	DA	SUM	CR10	WMD	S-2_6_7
UA627	CFSW	CFSW	CFSW	ETPI	DA	SUM	CR10	WMD	S-4
16021	L001	L001	L001	RAIN	DA	SUM	CR10	WMD	L OKEE
13081	LZ40	LZ40	LZ40	RAIN	DA	SUM	CR10	WMD	L OKEE
12524	L006	L006	L006	RAIN	DA	SUM	CR10	WMD	L OKEE
12515	L005	L OKE.W	L005	RAIN	DA	SUM	CR10	WMD	L OKEE
AL760	S65EX1_S	S65EX1_S	S65EX1	FLOW	DA	MEAN	DRV	WMD	S-65E
91656	S65E_S	S65E	S65E	FLOW	DA	MEAN	DRV	WMD	L OKEE
91687	S84_S	S84	S84	FLOW	DA	MEAN	DRV	WMD	C41AS
91686	S84X_S	S84X_S	S84X	FLOW	DA	MEAN	DRV	WMD	C41AS
91675	S72_S	S72	S72	FLOW	DA	MEAN	DRV	WMD	C40
91668	S71_S	S71	S71	FLOW	DA	MEAN	DRV	WMD	C41S
91513	S354_S	S354	S354	FLOW	DA	MEAN	DRV	WMD	L OKEE
91508	S351_S	S351	S351	FLOW	DA	MEAN	DRV	WMD	L OKEE
91510	S352_S	S352	S352	FLOW	DA	MEAN	DRV	WMD	L OKEE
02855	L8.441	L8.441	L8.441	FLOW	DA	MEAN		USGS	L8
DJ235	S77_S	S77	S77	FLOW	DA	MEAN		COE	L OKEE
DJ239	S308_S	S308	S308	FLOW	DA	MEAN		COE	L OKEE
65409	S271_C	S271_C	S271	FLOW	DA	MEAN	TELE	COE	L OKEE
91510	S352_S	S352	S352	FLOW	DA	MEAN	DRV	WMD	L OKEE